Market Overview
Brent crude slid sharply, trading around $88.2/bbl by 12 June after a series of 4%+ daily drops, as markets rapidly discounted a potential US–Iran peace framework and the prospect of sanctions relief that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The benchmark is down roughly 17% on the month but still almost 19% above year-ago levels, underscoring how quickly risk premia tied to Middle East supply disruptions are being unwound. For physical markets, this repricing is easing outright flat-price risk for buyers but increasing exposure to headline volatility around the Iran negotiations and Hormuz shipping conditions.
Key Market Themes — Week 23
- Middle East De-escalation Risk Premium Unwinds: Brent’s move below $90/bbl, with a print near $88.23 and intraday lows under $86.5, reflects the market front-running a possible US–Iran deal that includes lifting some oil sanctions and reopening Hormuz within 30 days. While drones and security incidents persist, traders are marking down the probability of prolonged supply outages, compressing the geopolitical risk premium across the barrel.
- Refined Products Track Crude Lower but Cracks Stay Supported: Gasoline and heating oil prices fell in tandem with crude, with gasoline off about 16% on the month and heating oil down nearly 15%, even as both remain 36–42% higher year on year. The pullback in flat prices offers some relief to EN590 and jet buyers, but elevated annual gains and still-tight middle distillate balances mean diesel and jet cracks remain structurally firm, keeping delivered premiums and freight-inclusive costs elevated.
- Forward Curve and Forecasts Signal Rebound Expectations: Despite the current selloff, model-based forecasts still point to Brent averaging around $94/bbl by quarter-end and above $108/bbl in 12 months, implying market expectations for renewed tightness or a re-expansion of risk premia. For hedgers, this creates a window where prompt weakness contrasts with more constructive forward pricing, favouring incremental length via swaps or options rather than aggressive de-hedging of existing coverage.
- Physical Flows Reorient Around Hormuz and Atlantic Basin: Reports of rising tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of sanctions relief are already shifting sentiment on Middle Eastern export availability, particularly for Europe and Asia. Buyers of Atlantic Basin grades priced off Brent, including West African and North Sea cargoes, may see differentials soften as incremental Iranian and regional flows are anticipated, while Urals’ sharp 23% monthly decline highlights growing pressure on alternative Russian barrels competing for the same demand pool.
Generated: Friday, 12 June 2026 at 12:38 UTC
Active Verified RFQs — Week 23
The following deals were active on the Skyra CIP marketplace during 1–7 June 2026. All participants have completed KYC verification.
Shanghai
Piraeus
Osaka
Mumbai
Dubai
New York
London
Hamburg
Manzanillo
Rotterdam
SingaporeSee also: EN590 price · Jet A-1 price · Bunker fuel price · Brent crude price
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